Tag Archives: Uber

Predictions

When will the fully-autonomous vehicle revolution begin? The most recent predictions from each manufacturer. (Sorted by earliest commercially available product)

2017 | Nvidia CEO & Founder: “Every car company in the world will have to invest in autonomous driving or they will become the Nokia of phones.” (October 2015) Source

2018 | Tesla: Elon Musk: We’ll See Fully Automated Tesla Cars by 2018 (September 2015) Source

2020 | Google Plans to Eliminate Human Driving in 5 Years (May 2015) Source

2020 | Mitsubishi Electric Introduces EMIRAI3 xAUTO Automated Driving Concept Car (October 2015) Source

2020 | Nissan Reaffirms Autonomous Car (Looking Like LEAF/Juke Mashup) Release Date in 2020 (October 2015) Source | See it

2020 | Toyota/Lexus aims to launch self-driving car by 2020 (October 2015) Source

2020 | Uber CEO To Tesla: Sell Me Half A Million Autonomous Electric Cars In 2020 (July 2015) Source

2020 | Volvo sees crash-free car by 2020 (July 2013) Source

2020 | Ford CEO MARK FIELDS PREDICTS: “Fully autonomous vehicles are a real possibility.” “Probably, in the next five years, you’ll see somebody introduce autonomous vehicles.” (January 2015) Source

2025 | Boston Consulting Group: The market for driverless car will be worth £27 billion ($42 billion) by 2025 (September 2015) Source

2025 | BCG Vehicles capable of urban autopilot could be ready in 2022, paving the way for fully autonomous vehicles by 2025 (April 2015) Source

2025 | General Motors officials said they forecast that most new cars will have automated functions and vehicle-to-vehicle communication technology by 2025 (September 2014) Source

2025 | IHS: Sales of driverless cars begin in 2025, by 2050 almost all vehicles will be autonomous (January 2014) Source

 

2025 | Mercedes-Benz Future Truck 2025

HARD TO SAY | Jaguar Land Rover R&D Chief: “We don’t consider customers cargo. We don’t want to build a robot that delivers the cargo from A to B.” June 2015 Source

Taxi, Ride-Sharing & Bus Transportation

Level 4 autonomous vehicles will eliminate the need for a traditional vehicle driver; including those in the taxi, ride-sharing, chauffeur and bus industries. 

OBSERVATIONS

  • 654,300 people employed as bus drivers in 2012 generating  $19.3 billion of compensation. Source
  • 220,000 people employed as taxi and chauffeur drivers in 2012 generating $5.3 billion of compensation. Source
  • 160,000 people drive for UBER Source
  • 12,400 limousine companies operating 126,000 vehicles. Source

FUTURE IMPACT

  • Level 3: A human occupant is required in the taxi or bus while the computer has control of most driving functions. Significant reduction in crashes and moving violations.
  • Level 4: Human driver eliminated. Vehicles redesigned to act as autonomous single- and multiple-passenger vehicles.

  • Maximizing capacity utilization will significantly reduce the number of cars and buses on the road.
  • Majority of the 1 million jobs in the industry eliminated.

SUPPORTING MATERIALS

CitiCar

Level 4 Autonomy

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The U.S. Department of Transportation classifies 5 levels of autonomous/driverless vehicles:

  • LEVEL 0: People pilot the vehicle at all times. 
  • LEVEL 4: The vehicles onboard computer is in complete control at all times, eliminating human intervention. Learn More

Autonomous or driverless-vehicles will eliminate traffic congestion, prevent millions of injuries and deaths, save billions of gallons of fuel, billions of dollars in transportation, police, fire and medical costs and add billions of hours of free time to pursue more productive activities.

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Change is coming at a rapid pace: Google’s driverless vehicle has driven over 1 million miles. As of October 2015, thousands of Tesla Model S owners engaged Autopilot to do most of the driving for them and Rio Tinto’s iron ore mines in Australia are using a fleet of driverless trucks to transport raw materials. All major automobile manufactures and some technology companies project delivery of their driverless car by 2017-2023. Jump

I like to mind map and autonomous vehicles/driverless cars fascinate me. Once you go down the rabbit hole of the implications driverless vehicles will have on every aspect of our lives, its hard not want to dig deeper. Many entrenched industries will fail, transform or be absorbed by the new industry titans. [Digital Disruption] This website helps organize my thoughts, collaborate with others, quantify the affects on the economy, identify current and future market leaders and educate others on the inevitable transition to a Level 4 Autonomous vehicle future.